Timur Arshavin, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
In this episode, we talk to Timur Arshavin, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine, an independent nonprofit that mobilises international private funding to procure and deploy proven air defence solutions to protect Ukrainian lives and critical infrastructure.
We discuss Skyward’s origins, NATO and Europe’s rearming efforts, where defence start-ups are struggling with procurement and investment, the innovations grabbing their attention, emerging trends and what defence technology could look like five years from now.
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Production, Design & Artwork: HIATUS ↗ The Defence Design & Communications Agency
Find Out More: https://www.linkedin.com/company/skyward-ukraine
Also By Us
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00:00:01 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
Hi, welcome to the Future Frontiers podcast from Mililux.io.
00:00:05 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
In this episode, we talk to Tima Arshavi, strategic advisor to Skyward Ukraine, an independent non-profit that mobilizes international private funding to procure and deploy proven air defense solutions to protect Ukrainian lives and critical infrastructure.
00:00:18 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
We discuss Skyward's origins, NATO and Europe's rearming efforts, where defence startups are struggling with procurement and investment, innovations grabbing their attention, emerging trends, and what defence technology could look like in five years' time from now.
00:00:41 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
Hey, Timur, thank you so much for joining us on the Future Frontiers podcast.
00:00:45 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
I realise it's probably quite a busy afternoon for you, so I've got to roll straight into our questions.
00:00:50 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
To kick us off, please could you give us a really concise one minute introduction to yourself?
00:00:54 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
Hi, Chris.
00:00:55 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
Thank you for this meeting.
00:00:59 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
I'm Ukrainian, and my ground is in security investigations, and over the last few years, increasingly defense.
00:01:08 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
Since the Wholesale invasion, a lot of my work has been around air defense, counter UAS, and protection of critical infrastructure.
00:01:21 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
I was involved in building parts of Ukraine's low-cost air defense layer, supporting mobile fire groups, working with engineering teams around early interceptor concepts, and later working with strategic electronic warfare systems.
00:01:39 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
So my role is normally somewhere between the operational problem and the people who can solve it, military users,
00:01:49 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
engineers, manufacturers, government and sometimes investors.
00:01:53 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
And a lot of what I learned from the work eventually led to Skyward Ukraine.
00:02:00 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
Today I'm strategic advisor to Skyward and we're building it as a very focused non-profit initiative around one problem, air defense.
00:02:11 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
And I should probably say from the beginning I'm not an engineer.
00:02:18 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
Yeah, good stuff.
00:02:19 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
We'll definitely dive into Skyward Ukraine in a little bit because I'm really interested to, that's something we're really interested to discuss and kind of hear more about because it sounds like a fascinating initiative.
00:02:28 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
But just to kind of set the scene a little bit more, could you give us your take on NATO and Europe's rearming efforts right now?
00:02:37 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
How are you seeing it from your perspective?
00:02:40 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
So I think the direction is right.
00:02:43 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
And I actually think it's important to say that because it's very easy for Ukrainians to sit there and say Europe is doing nothing.
00:02:53 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
That's not true anymore.
00:02:55 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
Budgets are increasing.
00:02:57 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
NATO has the 5% commitment.
00:03:01 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
There is much more focus on production, air defense, drones, private capital and getting new companies into defense.
00:03:10 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
So the political question, does Europe need to rearm, is mostly answered.
00:03:16 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
For me, the next question is harder.
00:03:20 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
Can Europe turn that money into useful capability quickly enough?
00:03:25 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
Because one of the biggest lessons from Ukraine is that the threat changes much faster than the traditional procurement system.
00:03:34 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
So if you are buying a frigate or a fighter aircraft, obviously you need years of planning.
00:03:43 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
But software, drones, electronic warfare systems, sensors, these technologies can change in months, sometimes weeks.
00:03:53 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
So Europe needs different clocks for different technologies.
00:03:58 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
And I think NATO is starting to understand that.
00:04:01 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
The important part now is execution.
00:04:06 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
Yeah, fascinating.
00:04:07 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
Well, thank you very much for sharing your thoughts on that.
00:04:09 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
And there's definitely
00:04:11 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
We've kind of had some guests recently on the podcast that echo the same sentiment that the threat is changing faster than the procurement cycles have been traditionally and we're kind of seeing this kind of analysis paralysis where it kind of sometimes looks like nature doesn't really know what to go ahead with or commission because they're constantly in this kind of decision-making cycle of understanding what the problem is or what they're building for rather than actually getting something off the ground.
00:04:41 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
But I'm interested to hear more about Skyward Ukraine.
00:04:44 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
What is it and how did it come to be?
00:04:46 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
What's your and how are you involved in it?
00:04:50 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
So Skyward came from a fairly simple frustration.
00:04:55 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
So for several years I kept seeing the same gap.
00:05:00 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
The military problem was real.
00:05:02 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
Sometimes a good solution already existed.
00:05:06 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
But between that operational need and actual deployment, you still had funding, procurement, logistics, paperwork, compliance, and a lot of other things that had to work.
00:05:20 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
Before Skyward existed, our team already had practical experience in air defense.
00:05:27 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
We supported mobile fire groups.
00:05:31 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
with equipment and training.
00:05:33 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
I was involved in work around early low-cost interceptor ideas and bringing engineering teams into that problem.
00:05:42 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
And I also worked with electronic warfare solution for protection of critical infrastructure.
00:05:47 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
So we had seen the problem from several different angles.
00:05:53 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
Kinetic interception,
00:05:56 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
electronic warfare, mobile air defense teams, critical infrastructure, and eventually the conclusion was air defense needs a specialized funding and deployment mechanism as well.
00:06:13 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
That is where Skyward came from.
00:06:16 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
We do not want to become another general military charity.
00:06:22 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
So Ukraine already has excellent large organization doing that.
00:06:27 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
Skyward is intentionally narrow, air defense only.
00:06:32 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
So the model we are building is basically a real operational requirement and authorized Ukrainian recipient, a proven solution, international private funding, and complaint procurement transfer.
00:06:49 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
And clear reporting to the donor.
00:06:50 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
That's it.
00:06:51 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
Simple idea and hard execution.
00:06:56 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
Yeah.
00:06:56 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
And I guess, and are you able to take on who you work with or what organizations kind of jump in as support or how does that look like kind of on the ground?
00:07:06 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
Okay.
00:07:10 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
About organization we are support.
00:07:11 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
So we are so sorry.
00:07:19 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
So for example, I want to be very clear, Skyward is not a manufacturer, yes?
00:07:26 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
Yeah, we don't own our IP, other systems we support, and we are not trying to build an interceptor company inside a non-profit.
00:07:36 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
There are excellent engineers and manufacturers, they should build technology.
00:07:40 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
So our job is a system around deployments, requirement, validation,
00:07:46 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
funding, procurement, transfer and accountability.
00:07:49 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
I don't think everybody needs to pretend to be engineer.
00:07:52 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
So about other organizations, so it's like we're looking for proven concepts that are already working, so that are tested and validated.
00:08:03 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
So we see some messages from our military units, so we understand what do they need.
00:08:13 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
We're looking for technologies that is already proven, battlefield proven, and of course, repeatable.
00:08:22 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
And we use them to close that gap.
00:08:26 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
Yeah, fascinating.
00:08:27 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
Well, thanks for sharing.
00:08:30 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
It does get me on to my next question.
00:08:32 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
I guess what piece of defence innovation in the kind of the counter UAS or the airspace kind of grabs your attention most at the moment?
00:08:40 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
I mean, we're kind of
00:08:42 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
In Europe, I sometimes feel like we're kind of like on the very latest end of the news that's coming out.
00:08:47 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
So I'm sure you're probably seeing things which we haven't even heard of yet.
00:08:52 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
Okay, so for me, it's the creation of a new low-cost layer of air defense.
00:08:59 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
And I mean much more than just interceptor drones.
00:09:03 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
I'm interested in the whole chain becoming cheaper and more disturbed.
00:09:10 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
So detection, tracking, command and control, electronic warfare, interceptors, and increasingly autonomy.
00:09:20 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
So for decades, air defense was heavily built around expensive missiles engaging in expensive threats.
00:09:28 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
Ukraine now also has to deal with large numbers of relatively cheap aerial threats.
00:09:36 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
If you use the most expensive solution against very cheap target, eventually the economics kill you.
00:09:43 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
So the interesting question is, how do we use the cheapest, reliable effect against each threat?
00:09:52 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
Sometimes it's electronic warfare, sometimes an interceptor drone, sometimes a gun, sometimes you absolutely need a high-end missile.
00:10:03 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
That layered architecture is what interests me.
00:10:07 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
Yeah, fascinating.
00:10:09 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
Yeah, thanks.
00:10:09 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
I mean, that cost asymmetry that you mentioned there, that's essentially, we've kind of been digging into that a lot deeper over the last few months because it's a challenging problem to solve, isn't it, without relying too much on supply chains from,
00:10:30 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
potentially unfavorable locations, for example.
00:10:32 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
I won't say that out loud, but you kind of infer what the kind of the meaning is there.
00:10:37 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
I think we're also kind of, you mentioned as well about kind of that dispersed manufacturing capability as well, so that you don't concentrate all of your manufacturing power into one place.
00:10:47 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
And so that could be things like 3D printing, parts, assembly in another location.
00:10:52 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
And actually, we're kind of seeing what's going on in Iran at the moment is quite a testament to that
00:11:00 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
there's low-cost munitions that are kind of deployed from various locations, then the next step from that is how do you construct, build, produce, and covertly keep them in those locations so they get targeted.
00:11:17 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
It's a game of cat and mouse in some respects, isn't it?
00:11:21 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
Yeah.
00:11:23 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
But it kind of pivots, want to pivot slightly onto kind of talking about those kind of startups, the defense procurement is known for having kind of like those long procurement cycles and complex customer needs, whereas actually what's going on in Ukraine at the moment is turning that argument on its head because people are innovating, they're iterating new ideas and they're producing
00:11:47 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
producing technologies which the world hasn't seen yet and they're almost redefining it really is the cutting edge of kind of conventional warfare, isn't it?
00:11:57 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
Unconventional warfare as well.
00:11:58 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
But what do you see founders struggling with the most from the people you talk to and what you see?
00:12:05 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
Yeah, so I see three problems again and again.
00:12:10 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
So the first founders starting with the technology and then going
00:12:17 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
to look for a military problem.
00:12:20 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
That is backwards.
00:12:21 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
In defense, requirement is not a slide.
00:12:25 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
It is an operator, an enemy, an environment, and a mission.
00:12:29 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
So second, people sometimes confuse successful test with a military capability.
00:12:36 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
A prototype working once on a nice
00:12:39 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
test range is useful.
00:12:41 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
But what about electronic warfare, about weather, about training, maintenance, integration, production, repeatability?
00:12:50 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
And the third problem comes after a successful test.
00:12:54 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
The technology works.
00:12:56 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
The military user may even like it.
00:12:58 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
And then nobody knows how to buy it.
00:13:01 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
The gap between validation and procurement kills a lot of good companies.
00:13:06 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
you can survive the technical problem and still die in the institutional one.
00:13:12 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
Yeah, and I guess that's probably people are probably people are understand that as either getting out the sandbox in the early stages or crossing the valley of death.
00:13:22 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
It's the two kind of metaphors for how do you get that into that production into procurement.
00:13:28 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
So yeah, fascinating.
00:13:31 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
Thanks, thanks, thanks for sharing it.
00:13:33 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
I do I do like
00:13:35 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
when you mentioned about the building a product, then finding a problem for it to solve is something we kind of we see across the industry as well.
00:13:46 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
And I think that's why talking to you with your connections is probably so useful and introspective for kind of Europe, NATO at large, because there's like a real process development lessons here as well.
00:14:03 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
So, for example, Chris, I wanted to add, so it's very important in assets to actual soldiers and end users it's very important, so, and this is one thing I learned very clearly in the environment around.
00:14:22 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
Fedorov in 2024 when I worked with him.
00:14:24 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
So reduce the distance between the person with the problem and the person who can change the technology is very essential.
00:14:33 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
So if an engineer heals the problem through five layers of bureaucracy, information gets lost.
00:14:40 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
Ukraine sometimes compressed months of feedback into days.
00:14:44 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
So now you don't want to copy all the wartime chaos,
00:14:48 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
but Europe can safely steal one thing from us.
00:14:52 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
Let the engineers speak to the operator.
00:14:55 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
Yeah, fascinating.
00:14:58 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
I'm madly typing down notes as well.
00:15:00 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
because what you're saying there, I was like, this is a classic design problem, isn't it?
00:15:04 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
Don't make the people with the problem so far away removed from the people who can solve that problem.
00:15:10 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
Because like you say, that crucial critical information will get lost in each one of those layers of bureaucracy.
00:15:17 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
And then you might end up with a very, and also as well, I don't think it's unfair to say, some people will also tweak that
00:15:25 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
at each layer, tweak that to their own kind of interests or their own needs or their own understandings of the problem.
00:15:30 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
And so you might end up with something very different that gets to the engineering side and they look at it going, doesn't sound like a problem to me.
00:15:37 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
And the person with the problem is getting the wrong product because of that communication gap.
00:15:43 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
So yeah, really, really, really interesting to hear.
00:15:45 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
Thanks.
00:15:47 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
So I mean, just getting on to my next question.
00:15:50 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
So what advice would you give to defense startups trying to engage with investors and break out of that sandbox?
00:15:55 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
And if you could talk directly to them, which you will be, what would you say to them?
00:16:01 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
Yeah, so before going into the sandbox, I would ask one uncomfortable question.
00:16:11 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
If the test works, who can actually buy this?
00:16:15 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
Who is the user?
00:16:16 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
Who is the buyer?
00:16:18 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
What budget?
00:16:19 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
what are success criteria, who make the next decision.
00:16:23 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
If nobody knows what happens after a successful test, I would be very careful.
00:16:30 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
Then build evidence, no marketing objectives, test results, real user feedbacks, unit economics, production capability, supply chain, and understand the procurement
00:16:44 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
wrote early.
00:16:46 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
So accelerators can be very useful, but an accelerator batch, for example, is not a purchase order.
00:16:54 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
So my basic advice is don't optimize for getting into programs, optimize for adoption.
00:17:01 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
Yeah, fascinating.
00:17:04 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
That's a really good quote for us to add as well.
00:17:07 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
Don't optimize for programs, optimize for adoption.
00:17:12 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
Yeah, so for example,
00:17:14 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
For me, what I see, what investors really want to see, I think they want to see three risks becoming smaller.
00:17:25 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
First, technical risk.
00:17:27 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
Does it actually work?
00:17:29 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
Second, market risk.
00:17:31 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
Does anybody really need it and can they buy it?
00:17:36 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
And the third, execution risk.
00:17:38 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
Can this team manufacture, deliver and support it?
00:17:42 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
After that, you get into margins, market size, capital needs the growth, but like the ministry really likes our idea, like it's not yet a business model.
00:17:56 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
Yeah, no, that's
00:17:59 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
I'm trying to think demand signals are the correct word, but understanding how to interpret market messages, I think, is probably one of those kind of key skills you learn over time, isn't it?
00:18:10 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
And someone saying, oh, yes, we really need this now is very different from saying, yes, we like this.
00:18:16 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
looks like it could be a useful solution.
00:18:19 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
And 2, there's like a huge gap between those of which could be one, you could lose runway if you bet too big on it.
00:18:28 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
So I guess kind of without giving away too many secrets, what kind of trends are you seeing from the companies you've helped, you've supported and worked with?
00:18:37 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
Okay, so without talking about individual companies, I see a few things.
00:18:44 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
Like first, the strongest team are thinking less about a single product and more about the whole system.
00:18:52 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
A drone is not just an airframe.
00:18:55 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
An interceptor is not just an interceptor.
00:18:58 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
You have sensors, communications, data, EW, software, operators, logistics.
00:19:06 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
Second, autonomy is becoming more important.
00:19:09 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
Not because everybody suddenly loves AI, but because you cannot always rely on communications or navigation.
00:19:18 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
Third, manufacturability is becoming part of the product.
00:19:23 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
It's not enough to make 10 fantastic systems if the military needs a thousand.
00:19:29 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
And fourth, supply chains matter much earlier now.
00:19:34 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
Where do your critical components come from?
00:19:37 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
Can you replace them?
00:19:38 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
So we see no problem in Europe, yes.
00:19:41 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
Can you build the product in Europe?
00:19:44 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
Can you scale production?
00:19:48 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
The serious teams are becoming much less romantic about prototypes and much more interested in repeatable production.
00:19:56 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
Yeah, fascinating.
00:19:57 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
Yeah, it's really useful lessons there, isn't it, for you know, across all businesses, you know, being defence or dual use.
00:20:07 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
I think
00:20:09 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
I would say defence as a market, as a sector, is becoming more aware, more conscious of the supply chain risk these days than it's ever done.
00:20:17 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
We can kind of see that across the news, especially kind of where I'm at the moment in the Nordics, where we've seen sort of a number of strategic sabotage attempts and successful ones on defence companies or drone companies, or those that supply defence and defence companies.
00:20:36 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
So it's, I think,
00:20:39 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
becoming more alive to this, protecting your supply chain so that you don't end up cutting that, the head off too soon, for your company or solution.
00:20:49 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
So for example, now we see like a big problem to find something like very specific kind of stuff in Europe rather than in China, and so how big is China problem in defense supply chain?
00:21:03 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
So
00:21:06 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
I think quite serious in some categories.
00:21:09 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
So especially electronics and commercial components that ended up inside defense products.
00:21:18 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
But I'm also careful with slogans like 0 China immediately.
00:21:22 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
So that can sound great and still be industrial impossible tomorrow morning.
00:21:29 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
The practical approach is to identify the critical dependencies first.
00:21:36 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
So for example, what component can stop your whole production line?
00:21:42 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
Can you dual source it?
00:21:46 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
Can you move production?
00:21:47 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
Can you find analytes alternative?
00:21:51 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
So, reduce the real risk risks step by step.
00:21:56 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
So, for example, like 0 China by next Tuesday is not a supply chain strategy.
00:22:03 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
So, and I guess I guess you could take it one step further, couldn't you?
00:22:08 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
And you could look at strategic control of critical rare earth minerals as well, couldn't you?
00:22:12 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
And say, whilst you've got
00:22:15 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
say China out of the supply chain is if you take another step backwards, you probably see that actually the companies which you rely on for those manufacturers do actually rely on Chinese, kind of control of rare earth minerals.
00:22:28 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
So it's kind of how you're building in that business resilience, organisational resilience by looking further and further, further back so that you have a plan, you know, if nothing else, you have a plan for if this gets turned off tomorrow, then we've got a secondary tertiary
00:22:45 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
suppliers lined up already and contracts, that are just waiting to be inked, for example.
00:22:50 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
But it's...
00:22:53 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
But, Chris, like I see now, like European companies are trying to create their stuffs by themselves in Europe.
00:23:02 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
So it's fascinating.
00:23:04 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
So it's hard, but it's very essential.
00:23:07 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
So and they need to create this more like because Europe needs it.
00:23:14 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
So, for example, a lot of companies now try to get rid of China components and Europe should go faster this way.
00:23:27 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
Yeah, that's something we're kind of hearing as well from a number of sources.
00:23:32 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
And I realise that your time must be
00:23:35 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
very busy, so I'm going to jump onto the final question, if that's okay, and just ask if we're having this conversation in five years' time, what major shift in defence technology do you think we'll be talking about?
00:23:45 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
Okay, so I think we'll talk less about individual autonomous machines and much more about autonomous defence networks.
00:23:57 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
So today we still talk about, okay, this drone, this radar,
00:24:02 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
this interceptor, this electronic prefare system, this common system.
00:24:07 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
In five years, I think the really important technology will increasingly be the architecture connecting all of them.
00:24:18 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
So like different sensors see different parts of the picture.
00:24:23 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
Software combines that information.
00:24:26 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
Different factors can be assigned to different threats, and the human moves higher in the system.
00:24:32 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
Instead of manually controlling every individual action, the human defines the mission, the limits, and the rules.
00:24:41 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
So for mass air defense, I think something like this becomes unavoidable.
00:24:47 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
So there will simply be too many targets and too much information for humans to manually control everything.
00:24:56 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
So I don't think the big revolution will be one magic weapon.
00:25:02 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
It will be many different systems learning to work together as one adaptive network.
00:25:07 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
So from my perspective, I see like now a lot of companies try to connect with themselves.
00:25:15 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
So for example, in air defense, if you're creating something, you need to understand
00:25:21 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
in what system you are able to work.
00:25:24 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
So for example, there is system of command control, radars, electronic warfare system, sensors, and you have some interceptor.
00:25:34 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
So you have to connect to the system.
00:25:39 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
You need to be in the system a part of it.
00:25:43 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
So
00:25:44 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
So I think new companies who create something new, they have to understand what systems really exist now, that are now improving, and they have to be a part of it.
00:25:57 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
I think this is the future.
00:26:00 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
Yeah, for sure.
00:26:00 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
Yeah, I think probably what we've seen.
00:26:05 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
Those small iterations in terms of uncrewed systems technology look, certainly, from my perspective, like those gaps have been filled, and now it's a case of getting all these different systems to work together, and you a new company would join an ecosystem rather than try to solve a specific problem outside of it.
00:26:27 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
would be like, how much can you, which is probably would be also a challenge as well, because
00:26:35 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
you would then have gatekeepers kind of protecting that ecosystem.
00:26:40 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
Not necessarily saying that the primes or the near primes, but I think you then got to be, you've almost got to have to get through that front door to be kind of into the ecosystem.
00:26:51 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
So that presents a whole lot of new challenges itself.
00:26:55 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
So yeah, for example, I see like now we have a lot of new interceptors, yes?
00:27:01 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
So some interceptor companies
00:27:05 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
in Ukraine, for example, maybe we've heard about, maybe not about interceptor A2.
00:27:11 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
He tries to get in system of existing like radar and sensor systems.
00:27:16 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
So it could, it will be fully automatically and it will work without like without human, without a drone operator.
00:27:25 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
So, but the decision of course need to
00:27:30 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
to make like by human, but all the next job it will do by itself.
00:27:37 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
So for example, we have another interceptor drone from another country and it wants to sell it.
00:27:45 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
It has great speed, it has like a great payload.
00:27:50 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
So it has a lot of different stuff, but it's not matches the system.
00:27:58 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
It won't be buy by a customer, so because you have to be in some system.
00:28:03 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
So, for example, the not so good drone that is in working in some system of air defense would be bought like by government, but the better solution that is not integrated in the system won't, so like.
00:28:23 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
this kind of problem you need to solve before you are going to the market.
00:28:29 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
So you need to understand where do you have to be in the system.
00:28:35 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
So you could be a radar system also like be in the system.
00:28:38 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
Like you can be electronic warfare, you can be a sensor system or something like this.
00:28:43 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
So you could be some software company with artificial intelligence and could also work in the system like a part of it.
00:28:53 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
So, but you need to understand, so different countries has different kind of stuff.
00:28:58 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
So, Ukraine, I know what works in Ukraine, so, and this is essential to go to Ukraine market, for example.
00:29:06 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
Yeah, fascinating.
00:29:08 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
I realize we've been talking for almost 40 minutes now.
00:29:12 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
So on that note, I will say thank you very much for joining us on the podcast.
00:29:17 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
I hugely appreciate sharing your experiences, your knowledge, your observations and your thoughts with us.
00:29:23 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
And we look forward to maybe getting you on in like six months or a year's time and kind of like having a catch up and saying kind of like how are you seeing the ecosystem now?
00:29:31 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
How is Skyward Ukraine going?
00:29:33 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
And we'll be sure to put links to the organisation
00:29:37 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
yourself in the show notes and wish you the very best.
00:29:41 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
Okay, thank you, Chris.
00:29:42 Timur Arshavi, Strategic Advisor to Skyward Ukraine
Thank you very much.
00:29:45 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
It's really great chatting with Tima.
00:29:46 Chris Shirley MA FRGS, Website Developer, Communications Specialist and Brand Designer at HIATUS _, The Defence Design and Communications Agency
If you want to find out more about Skyward Ukraine and working on, check out the show notes below and we'll see you next time.
